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| Attack on Pearl Harbor, as depicted in the game Order of Battle |
Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory, as they seem to grant secret knowledge to its adherents and allow them to defend their deeply-held paradigms. In this post, I will examine the claim that the American government knew about the incoming Pearl Harbor attack in December 1941, and did not warn the base there.
This conspiracy claimed that this would allow the American government to garner support for direct entry into World War 2 in a time where they were isolationist.
Discussion point 1: Discouraging attack
The first point is that the odds were against the Japanese. Hawaii is more than 6000 km away from Japan (in a time when the maximum range of ships was about 4000 km). The Japanese had to refuel their ships halfway on choppy waters. Radio silence had to be observe to reduce the chance of the Americans from detecting them.
It was agreed among the Japanese naval command that if there were signs that the Americans knew their approach, they would abort the mission. Thus all President Roosevelt had to do was to send some intercepting ships or aircraft to discourage the Japanese. In addition, the 1999 book Day of Deceit alleged that a "Seaman Z" intercepted a Japanese radio message from the eminent Japanese fleet. This might have given time for the Americans to act upon it if they wanted to deter the attack.
BUT
However, this did not make sense. The United States was not neutral at that time. They had sent arms to the British and embargoed Japan (for its invasion of China). They were more interested in the European theatre of the conflict at that time, and would not want a distraction in the Pacific.
To add on, such a conspiracy would involve hundreds of senior naval officials to ignore such a warning. Many of them had comrades in Hawaii and thus Pearl Harbor.
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| The Japanese Aircraft Carrier IJN Akagi took part in the Attack on Pearl Harbor |
Discussion Point 2: The United States were preparing for war with Japan long before Pearl Harbor
Pre-war, the United States military had planned for a military conflict with Imperial Japan in the form of War Plan Orange. Part of these plans were actually used in the Pacific Campaign including island-hopping and naval blockages.
Thus this gives fuels to conspiracy theorists that the United States government purposely got involved to win and control the Pacific.
BUT
It is not particularly unusual for strong militaries to plan against other contenders. Imperial Japan was not particularly singled out. For instance, War Plan Red was a planned offensive against the British in the 1930s.
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| The Japanese delegation preparing to surrender on the USS Missouri, September 1945 |
Conclusion
The accusation that the American government knowingly allowed Pearl Harbor to happen has little evidence.
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